Where Are All the New Cars?
A few years ago, a top Mercedes executive in the US shared an intriguing insight: CES was the second-most significant car show globally, only surpassed by Detroit. This revelation was eye-opening, especially before the automotive industry's full-scale embrace of electric vehicles (EVs). However, this year's CES in Las Vegas saw a surprising absence of cars on display.
Despite numerous automotive announcements, the focus shifted to AI and technology. Chipmakers highlighted 'Physical AI' as a game-changer, while Nvidia unveiled Alpamayo, an autonomous driving model emphasizing both perception and reasoning, mimicking human-like driving. BMW announced its in-car Intelligent Personal Assistant will now use Alexa+, and Ford revealed plans for eyes-off, hands-free driving on its Universal EV Platform in 2028, along with a new AI assistant and a high-performance compute center.
Hyundai's main-stage reveal was a robot named Atlas, showcasing its potential in real manufacturing environments, including vehicle factories. However, the number of actual car displays was disappointingly low. Lucid, Uber, and Nuro showcased their Gravity SUV competitor, while Sony and Honda presented the Afeela 1, promising its release later this year, along with an SUV sibling.
One notable announcement was a new robotaxi from a collaborative team of Lucid, Nuro, and Uber. This shift in focus from private vehicles to autonomous driving technology is significant.
The absence of cars at CES 2026 reflects the struggling US car industry. Sales are declining, and there's no immediate relief in sight. While the US market cools on EVs after tax credits expire, global electric vehicle sales surged by over 20% last year, with BYD surpassing Tesla in sales. China's auto industry is poised to launch new EVs, while Jeep and Chrysler are discontinuing plug-in hybrid production in the US.
Industry experts attribute this change to the evolving dynamics between the US and China. Daniele Ministeri, a senior consultant at JATO, notes that Chinese OEMs, ahead in software for autonomous driving, are not at CES due to their inability to launch vehicles in the US. Andy Palmer, a former executive, suggests that CES's relevance has diminished as automotive tech is no longer a novelty but an expected part of the industry. The center of gravity for the auto world has shifted to China, making China's auto expo the crucial platform for carmakers to showcase their innovations.
The shift is evident in the industry's response to the Shanghai 2025 car show, which signaled China's dominance in charging rates, ranges, design, tech, and volumes. Chinese automakers are now seeking alternative platforms like Munich's IAA Mobility, Europe's largest car convention, to display their products globally. For US auto brands to regain dominance, a significant evolution in vehicles is necessary, and the rapid pace of innovation in China makes traditional car shows like CES less effective.
As Nothard points out, Chinese manufacturers' lead time from R&D to deliveries is just two years, significantly faster than traditional manufacturers' average of seven years. This rapid innovation cycle means that car shows like CES may soon become outdated, as new products are launched before the next show even begins.
